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		<p id="lastupdate">Jan. 15, 2013, 10:47 a.m. EST</p>
		<h1>Did Icahn spot a Transocean opportunity?</h1>
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By Meena Krishnamsetty and Matt Doiron

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Transocean                 <span>
				    (NYSE:RIG)
			    </span> 
's stock actually initially recovered after the Deepwater Horizon disaster, nearly reaching its pre-spill levels in the first quarter of 2011. However, the stock is down 32% in the last two years as the S&P 500 has risen over 10%; we think this is partly due to poor investor sentiment from Deepwater Horizon, partly due to financial obligations from the disaster, but primarily due to actually poorer business conditions. The stock is correlated to oil prices, since higher oil prices make offshore drilling more economical (it is considerably more expensive to drill offshore than onshore) and as a contract driller- particularly in deepwater- Transocean is tied to drilling activity.

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Now reports are coming in, generally from the company itself, that billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn has bought close to 2% of the outstanding shares and may move up to a 3% stake. At its current price, Transocean's market capitalization is $20 billion; by our math, that would make the driller one of his 10 largest stock holdings.  This is a big move for Icahn since he hadn't owned any shares at all at the end of September, according to his 13F filing.

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A number of other billionaires' hedge funds reported sizable positions in Transocean in their 13F filings for the third quarter of 2012. Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors, for example, increased its holdings by 19% to a little over 3 million shares Capital Advisors, managed by billionaire Steve Cohen, cut its stake during the quarter but still reported a position of 1.9 million shares. Citadel Investment Group owned 1.6 million shares; that fund is managed by billionaire Ken Griffin.

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                                        <p id="" class="">



Transocean's revenue was up 23% in the third quarter of 2012 compared to the same period in the previous year. Analyst expectations are for $4.83 per share in earnings this year, which would result in a 2013 earnings multiple of 11. The Street also has high expectations for the following several years, with Transocean's five-year PEG ratio being 0.5. Note that this means that the company could fall short of analyst consensus and still prove a good value at the current price as long as it experiences some earnings growth. We would be worried, however, that the glut in oil due to onshore production (including from shale and other unconventional sources) will keep oil prices from rising very much, and so keep offshore activity cool for at least the next few years. If investors are interested in following Icahn, and are attracted by the bullish sell-side, that is a point they should look into before making a decision.

                                        </p>
                                        <p id="" class="">



Other drillers include SeaDrill                 <span>
				    (NYSE:SDRL)
			    </span> 
, ENSCO                 <span>
				    (NYSE:ENV)
			    </span> 
, and Noble Corporation                 <span>
				    (NYSE:NE)
			    </span> 
. Analysts are similarly bullish on these companies: Ensco and Noble actually trade at discounts to Transocean in terms of their 2013 earnings, which clock in at a P/E multiple of 9 in each case. Billionaire David Einhorn is a big fan of Ensco. Seadrill trades at 18 times trailing earnings, but its earnings were up enormously in Q3 2011 versus a year earlier and so we can understand why it is priced at a 2013 P/E of 12. SeaDrill and Ensco also boast PEG ratios in the same range as Transocean's. The company is something of a market leader and does have particularly strong deepwater capabilities, but it doesn't seem to be that cheap compared to its peers and of course Transocean might not be completely through with Deepwater Horizon issues. We can also compare the company to Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras                 <span>
				    (NYSE:PBR)
			    </span> 
; as an integrated Brazilian oil and gas company, Petrobras does quite a bit of drilling and oil production from deepwater and "ultra-deepwater" sources. After a 31% decline in price over the last year, the stock is valued at 8 times expected 2013 earnings, again a lower level than where Transocean trades.

                                        </p>
                                        <p id="" class="">



At first glance, this doesn't look like a particularly good move by Icahn. Transocean isn't priced particularly low compared to its peers. In addition, while the industry as a whole is undervalued in terms of analyst estimates, and might prove to be a good source of value ideas (though even in that case Transocean doesn't particularly stand out), taking a position in an offshore driller is dependent on oil prices and it's possible that supply will remain high for the next few years.

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		<p class="kiosktitle" >Technology</p>
		<div class="Kiosk"  style="padding-top: 5px" >
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				 <span>
			
        <a href="/story/ces-2013-10-of-the-quirkiest-gadgets-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class=""><img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AY143_smcesb_MB_20130110172740.jpg"  style="border: 0;"  alt="This body media patch is one of the 10 quirkiest gadgets at the Consumer Electronics Show."  width="140"  height="93"  /></a>
			
      </span></div>
			<div style="width: 226px; float: left" >
								
			
        <a href="/story/ces-2013-10-of-the-quirkiest-gadgets-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class="Headline2">
									CES: 10 quirkiest gadgets</a>
			
      <br />
									The hot products of this year’s Consumer Electronics Show 
									in Las Vegas meld peculiarity with innovation. 
				Here are a few examples.<span class="LabelLink" > (slide show)</span></div>
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<div class="fourwide" >
		<p class="kiosktitle"  style="color: white" >Cars</p>
		<div class="Kiosk"  style="padding-top: 5px" >
			<div class="addgutter"  style="width: 140px; float: left" >
				<div class="oneandhalfwide"  style="text-align: right; float: none; margin: 0;" >
<img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AX793_Merced_MB_20130105201058.jpg"  style="border: 0;"  alt="Mercedes debuts new 2014 E-class"  width="140"  height="93"  /></div>
			</div>
			<div style="width: 226px; float: left" >
									
			
        <a href="/story/mercedes-debuts-new-2014-e-class-for-detroit-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class="Headline2">
									Mercedes 2014 E-class</a>
			
      <br />Mercedes-Benz 
				reveals its face-lifted<br />
				E-class ahead of  the public unveiling of the series at the North American International Auto Show 
				in Detroit.<br />
			</div>
		</div>
	</div>

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		<p class="kiosktitle" >Retirement Portfolio</p>
		<div class="Kiosk"  style="padding-top: 5px" >
			<div class="onewide addgutter" >
					
			
        <a href="/story/new-laws-complicate-income-and-tax-brackets-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class="">
<img height="86"  src="http://i.marketwatch.com/_newsimages/columnists/kiosk/powell-robert.png"  width="86"  />
</a>
			
      
 </div>
			<div class="threewide" >
				<span class="Label" >Robert Powell</span><br />
				
			
        <a href="/story/new-laws-complicate-income-and-tax-brackets-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class="Headline2">
				Adjust now to offset tax increases</a>
			
      <br />
								Don't waste time; adjust your portfolio now to<br />
				offset higher income taxes brought on by 
								fiscal-cliff legislation and by increases in healthcare 
				taxes.</div>
		</div>
	</div>

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		<p class="kiosktitle"  style="color: white" >Investing</p>
		<div class="Kiosk"  style="padding-top: 5px" >
			<div class="addgutter"  style="width: 140px; float: left" >
				<div class="oneandhalfwide"  style="text-align: right; float: none; margin: 0;" >
					
			
        <a href="/story/rich-bond-yields-youre-likely-missing-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class=""><img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AR796_brazil_MB_20120529122346.jpg"  style="border: 0;"  alt=""  width="140"  height="93"  /></a>
			
			
        <a href="/story/10-money-making-investment-ideas-for-2013-2012-12-21?link=kiosk" class="">
				</a>
			
      
				</div>
				</div>
			<div style="width: 226px; float: left" >
				<span class="Headline2" >
				
			
        <a href="/story/rich-bond-yields-youre-likely-missing-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class="">
				Rich yields you're missing</a>
			
      <br /></span>Once viewed as a risky 
				fringe investment, emerging-market bonds now seem one of the 
				safest bets in fixed income.<span class="Headline1" ><br />
				
			
        <a href="/story/make-china-the-next-stop-for-your-investments-2013-01-07?link=kiosk" class="">
				• China growth is slower, but steady</a>
			
      </span></div>
		</div>
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<div class="fourwide" >
		<p class="kiosktitle" >Car Review</p>
		<div class="Kiosk"  style="padding-top: 5px" >
			<div class="addgutter"  style="width: 140px; float: left" >
								
			
        <a href="/story/hondas-renaissance-of-radical-reasonableness-2012-10-20?link=kiosk" class="">
								</a>
			
      
								
			
        <a href="/story/jaguars-genteel-tourer-goes-rough-and-ready-2013-01-12?link=kiosk" class="">
<img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AY181_2013_J_MB_20130111165351.jpg"  style="border: 0;"  alt="The 2013 Jaguar XKR-S."  width="140"  height="93"  />
</a>
			
      
								
			
        <a href="/story/range-rover-if-you-must-buy-a-luxury-suv-2012-11-10?link=kiosk" class="">
   </a>
			
      </div>
			<div style="width: 226px; float: left" >
								
			
        <a href="/story/jaguars-genteel-tourer-goes-rough-and-ready-2013-01-12?link=kiosk" class="Headline2">
Jaguar's tough-guy tourer
</a>
			
      
								<br />
								Jaguar’s XKR-S is a huge, privileged brat, an 
								upper-class lad with a bad attitude and mouth 
								like a vulcanized black bass, says Dan Neil.</div>
		</div>
	</div>
<p class="auto-style2" >.</p>

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		<p class="kiosktitle" >Travel</p>
		<div class="Kiosk"  style="padding-top: 5px" >
			<div class="addgutter"  style="width: 140px; float: left" >
				<div class="oneandhalfwide"  style="text-align: right; float: none; margin: 0;" >
										
			
        <a href="/story/10-tips-for-finding-the-best-travel-deals-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class="">
<img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AK953_hilton_MB_20110620163905.jpg"  style="border: 0;"  alt="10 tips for finding the best travel deals"  width="140"  height="93"  /></a>
			
      </div>
				</div>
			<div style="width: 226px; float: left" >
					
			
        <a href="/story/10-tips-for-finding-the-best-travel-deals-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class="Headline2">
					10 tips for best travel deals</a>
			
      <br />
									These travel experts share some of their 
									lesser-known methods to score the best travel 
									deals. <br />
				
			
        <a href="/story/make-china-the-next-stop-for-your-investments-2013-01-07?link=kiosk" class="Headline1">
					• </a>
			
      
					
			
        <a href="/story/claiming-united-airlines-baggage-at-the-hotel-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class="Headline1">Claiming UAL baggage at the hotel</a>
			
      <br />
					</div>
		</div>
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<div class="fourwide" >
		<p class="kiosktitle" >The RetireMentors</p>
		<div class="Kiosk"  style="padding-top: 5px" >
			<div class="onewide addgutter" >
				
			
        <a href="/story/baby-boomers-beware-2013-01-14?link=kiosk" class="">
				<img alt=""  class="auto-style1"  height="86"  src="http://i.marketwatch.com/_newsimages/columnists/retirementors/kiosk/hebeler_henry_86.png"  width="86"  /></a>
			
      </div>
			<div class="threewide" >
				<span class="Label" >Henry Hebeler</span><br />
				
			
        <a href="/story/baby-boomers-beware-2013-01-14?link=kiosk" class="Headline2">
				Baby boomers beware</a>
			
      <br />3 things that will change our 
				future significantly.<br />
				<span class="Headline1" >
				
			
        <a href="/story/social-security-the-importance-of-66-2013-01-14?link=kiosk" class="">
				• Plus: Social Security: The importance of 66 </a>
			
       <br />
				</span>
				<a class="Headline1"  href="http://www.marketwatch.com/retirement/mentors/" >
				• More from The RetireMentors » </a><br />
				</div>
		</div>
	</div>
	
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<div class="fourwide" >
		<p class="kiosktitle" >The RetireMentors</p>
		<div class="Kiosk"  style="padding-top: 5px" >
			<div class="onewide addgutter" >
				
			
        <a href="/story/social-security-the-importance-of-66-2013-01-14?link=kiosk" class="">
				<img alt=""  class="auto-style1"  height="86"  src="http://i.marketwatch.com/_newsimages/columnists/retirementors/kiosk/miller_jeffrey_86.png"  width="86"  /></a>
			
      </div>
			<div class="threewide" >
				<span class="Label" >Jeffrey Miller</span><br />
				<span class="Headline2" >
				
			
        <a href="/story/social-security-the-importance-of-66-2013-01-14?link=kiosk" class="">
				The importance of 66</a>
			
      </span><br />Poor SSA claiming decisions 
				can be costly.<br />
				
			
        <a href="/story/to-401k-or-not-to-401k-2013-01-11?link=kiosk" class="Headline1">
				• Plus: When to stop paying into a 401(k).</a>
			
       <br />
				<a class="Headline1"  href="http://www.marketwatch.com/retirement/mentors/" >
				• More from The RetireMentors » </a><br />
				</div>
		</div>
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